Every bettor’s dream is to consistently outmaneuver the house and come out ahead. Many believe the path to such success lies in deep sports knowledge or a gut sense about winning teams. However, at its heart, precision in betting comes down to identifying value in betting lines.
pxj Sportsbook takes this seriously, and so should you. Here’s how to hunt for the bets that offer the most bang for your buck.
Understanding Odds and Probability
Before trying to beat the house, you must understand it. Odds are the language of betting, and you need to be fluent. There are three primary types of odds: American (-105, +200), Decimal (1.95), and Fractional (19/20). Each represents the same information in different ways.
To convert odds into implied probability, you use the following formulas:
- American odds: (negative figure)/((negative figure) + 100)
- Decimal odds: 1/decimals
- Fractional odds: denominator / (denominator + numerator)
For +200 American odds, the implied probability would be 200/(200 + 100) = 66.7%. If you see a 66.7% chance of a team winning (in your analysis), a +200 bet offers value.
Quantifying Value
A 66.7% chance converted to odds would be approximately -200. This is where a difference between the implied odds and your calculated odds comes in – the margin is the value. If the sportsbook offers -180 instead of -200, the value is in taking the bet.
To quantify value, utilize whatever model you trust. That could be a simple points for/points against model, more complex team and player statistics, or even market data like the betting public’s leanings. The key is to apply it consistently and test for accuracy.
Shop for the Best Line
To ensure you maximize your value, shopping for the best line becomes crucial. Bettors often fall into the trap of loyalty to a single sportsbook. This is a mistake. Tips for line shopping include:
- Use Betting Lines Comparison Tools: They pull data from various sportsbooks, so you don’t have to.
- Join Multiple Sportsbooks: This way, you can get alerts when a line shifts in your favor.
- Be Ready to Strike: Once you’ve found the best line, make your move quickly. Line shifts can be sudden.
Managing Risk
Finding value is half the battle; the other half is managing your risk. Even bets with great value don’t always win. There are several strategies for this, such as:
- Bankroll Management: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. A common rule is the Kelly Criterion, which adjusts your bet size based on your confidence in a bet.
- Hedge Bets: If a live bet presents itself that could guarantee you a profit or mitigate a loss, consider it. This usually applies to futures bets where one playoff bracket is largely set.
The Long Game
Professional sports bettors aren’t looking to get rich quick. They know they have an edge, and they look to exploit it over time through volume. Just like the house, they’re playing a long game.
The ability to pick winners is valuable, but it is the ability to find value in the odds offered that will make you a consistent winner. Use sharp analytical skills and good bankroll management to augment your betting strategy, and you just might beat the book more often than not.